Assessing Residual Seasonality in the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts Aggregates

Abstract There is an ongoing debate on whether residual seasonality present in the estimates of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) U.S. national accounts and it explains slower quarter-one GDP growth rate recent years. This article aims to bring clarity this topic by (1) summarizing techniques methodologies used these studies; (2) arguing for a sound methodological framework evaluating claims seasonality; (3) proposing three diagnostic tests detecting seasonality, applying them different vintages sample spans data its major components from making comparisons with results previous studies.